Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.934205 23.837243 26.967805 30.591083 34.665506 39.101997 44.295056
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 16.695961 20.635994 25.211760 30.904147 37.780843 45.804280 55.859304
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 14.491335 18.876688 24.215916 31.168235 39.952885 50.652357 64.637996
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.570913 17.161370 22.990179 30.892762 41.280491 54.416673 72.228299
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.313399 16.082947 22.362181 31.175000 43.155667 58.796231 80.669555
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.530720 15.525520 22.317999 32.150054 45.922042 64.414582 90.990806
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.462562 14.442814 21.427189 31.836470 46.833307 67.509299 97.989804
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.172896 12.905005 19.743819 30.229691 45.754544 67.710870 100.881430
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.711959 12.545743 19.717889 30.990919 48.081941 72.793108 110.924342
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.318005 12.245769 19.741513 31.801479 50.497279 78.093133 121.525157
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.734434 11.590464 19.161853 31.628422 51.383976 81.143051 128.896521
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.146144 10.872838 18.422428 31.135900 51.716780 83.334739 135.028851
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.705893 10.374119 18.011054 31.161342 52.902103 86.954773 143.661448
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.393225 10.065873 17.886855 31.642746 54.843560 91.855044 154.567083
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.063698 9.695890 17.623991 31.858887 56.337152 96.084539 164.568681
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.683700 9.200957 17.106409 31.595182 56.993799 98.965649 172.488167
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.427017 8.908414 16.916444 31.877643 58.578727 103.428554 183.206812
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.298318 8.844352 17.126124 32.875147 61.449633 110.170290 198.060452
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.990996 8.410181 16.628453 32.554325 61.960556 112.901702 206.174416
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.535942 7.645702 15.460185 30.913843 59.989465 111.220520 206.525135
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.425674 7.564815 15.578970 31.691084 62.471272 117.456329 221.064791
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.327397 7.499886 15.722011 32.518757 65.083646 124.033995 236.496019
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.120813 7.190298 15.361700 32.342046 65.783710 127.180469 245.854950